Big Picture SPY

Day traders must have no BIAS to be able to adapt to any outcome and go with the flow but I like to play guess games where I look for mayor resistance support pivots and channels guessing possible outcomes in the market. The main idea is to look always for confirmation and follow the trend so I don't use this analysis to trade, I use it to exit or avoid trading in problematic areas.

There are lot of blogs watching for a mayor crash this week or next week. Actually, some blogs are pointing out tomorrow as Black Monday.

Option 1:

When I am looking to the downtrend channel, It looks to me like this wave from the 1315-ish to the 1100-ish has reached the same extension than the previous wave 1437-ish to 1200-ish, so It would make sense some kind of bounce. I am not sure what might trigger it because the sentiment is very negative but I would not be surprised either to see something from the FED or some bullish news (if that's possible in this market).

Option 2:

Otherwise, we would extend the wave down to the next pivot and possibly falling like a knife breaking all these supports quite easily. When channels don't make 3 Highs or Lows aligned and the third one falls short to reach the trend line the wave goes in acceleration mode. So breaking the red channel or getting short to reach in a pullback the blue channel the market goes down the rabbit hole again. If the bounce does not reach the 1220 and bounce from 1175 the wave might accelerate again. I am looking at the chart and there are so many possibilities about different bounces that this is a very difficult game to guess what is next.

I will be watching the support/resistance lines in the chart and watching how the market reacts (1220ish, 1275ish, 1104ish, 1060ish, 1010ish etc).

The next chart is a 100k of ES. Asia is droping already so if Europe continues the drop we might have the snow ball effect into the market tomorrow. It is interesting the Up Trend Line from the bottom 2002-2003 and more interesting would be the confluence with a resistance/support pivot.